Assessment of the Vulnerability of Cattle Producers of Sierras del Este in Different Scenarios

Abstract

Cattle producers in Sierras del Este are highly vulnerable to the incidence of external drivers, mainly to the changes in precipitation that affect the productivity of the natural grasslands, and the agrarian intensification, that affects access to land and food supplements. The combination of these drivers allows identifying six scenarios with different impacts on the activity and the cattle producers. The objective of this work was to analyze the incidence of the main drivers on 35 cattle producers of Sierras del Este, grouped in six groups based on the similarity in their capacities for cattle management, the socio-economic capacity, the capacity to access to alternative sources of food to cattle feeding, and the commercial and financial flexibility. The main results highlight that the most vulnerable cattle producers in the current scenario are in general the most vulnerable in all future scenarios considered. Additionally, a non-linear behaviour among the groups of producers and their response capacity values  according to each scenario was detected, which highlights the need to analyze the vulnerability of producers according to the scenario considered. The proposed approach, which can be implemented for diverse production systems and for diverse climatic and economic drivers, highlights the importance of working with scenarios for the design and implementation of public policies.